Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan Represents a Advantage to Russia's Leader

Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a strong position regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "serious repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted obstructing peace talks, Trump finally enacted considerable penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or European participation, he has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in danger. Although bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that very autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump continues to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not only about dominating a destroyed swath of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in position the currently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a open route to Kyiv in case he later choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make additional fighting easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, the proposal sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the plan states: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." As if to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of captured areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should the international community trust this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "decisive joint defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars vary from fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional supplementary accord apparently would grant the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not